KOR

Research Staff

Research Staff

Profile

Education
Ph.D., Economics, The Ohio State University, 2012
M.A., Economics, The Ohio State University, 2009
B.A, Economics, Seoul National University, 2003
Professional Experience
Research Fellow, Korea Capital Market Institute, 2012.8 onward
Graduate Teaching Associate, Department of Economics, OSU, 2008-2012
Economist, the Bank of Korea, 2003-2007

Publications

Opinion

Causes behind Rising US Long-term Interest Rates and Possible Shift in Lower for Longer / Apr. 07, 2021
The causes behind the sharp rise in US long-term Treasury yields this year could stem from the upward adjustment in inflation and growth projections in line with large-scale fiscal expansion. However, this round of fiscal expansion, despite its sheer scale, is largely a one-off transfer payment, which is found to have no significant impact on the nominal neutral interest rate and long-term inflation expectations. This implies market participants perceiving the recent yield change as a cyclical increase, instead of a shift in the low interest rate stance. However, Korea’s interest rate is strongly in sync with the US Treasury yields amid the looming expectation for Fed tapering. This reinforces the need for Korea’s financial investment industry to ramp up its risk management bracing for interest rate increases in the short-run, and to prepare for a possibility of the lingering low interest rate due to structural factors in the long-run.
Korea’s Midterm Fiscal Operation Plan and Implications / Dec. 08, 2020
According to the midterm fiscal operation plan, Korea’s public debt ratio is projected to rise steeply as the nation faces an increase in fiscal expenditures this year in response to the Covid-19 shocks, and a decrease in fiscal revenues between 2021 and 2024. Such fiscal outlook provides contradicting short-term and mid-term implications. In a short run, slowed growth in fiscal expenditures will significantly reduce the effect of fiscal measures that have supported the economic growth so far. Also, an increase in government bond issuance will continue to impose an upward pressure on government bond yields. From the mid-term perspective, further effort should be made to keep fiscal soundness despite Korea’s faster rise in public debt ratio relative to advanced economies, while discussing the need to manage discretionary spending and to increase tax revenues for securing fiscal space to cope out any crisis in the future.
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under the Covid-19 Pandemic / Apr. 09, 2020
Korea’s government and the Bank of Korea have been acting quickly to alleviate the Covid-19 shocks to the financial markets and the real economy. Against the backdrop, this article sheds light on the role of the BOK in a stable corporate financing market, the BOK’s further actions such as a rate cut to zero and quantitative easing, and a balance between imminent fiscal demand and long-term fiscal soundness. Among others, the BOK is legally limited from purchasing commercial paper and corporate bonds. In the short run, Korea should increase liquidity to support the government’s market stabilization measures, while establishing a legal basis for helping the BOK serve as a lender of last resort in the long run. Amid the looming expectations of a deepening slowdown in the real economy, the future monetary policy directions should be a further cut in the base interest rate and an introduction of quantitative easing. Last but not least, policy authorities need to take a forward-looking position about a one-off fiscal expansion to cope with temporary, not structural shocks. Desirably, future discussion should shift towards how to effectively support households and industries on the verge of crisis, away from controversies around fiscal soundness.
Monetary Policy in the Super-low Rate Era / Jan. 21, 2020
Amid Korea’s structural growth slowdown and the Bank of Korea’s cut in the base rate to the unprecedented low level of 1.25%, more attention is paid on Korea’s future moves in the super-low interest rate era. Given the effective lower bound risk where a country cannot cut the interest rate further despite an economic slump due to its less effective monetary policy, further research is needed to estimate Korea’s effective lower bound level, and to develop new policy tools to mobilize if the economy reaches the effective lower bound, which should reflect on developed countries’ experience of super-low interest rates.

Seminar Presentation

Research performance

  •  Analysis of foreign investors' investment behavior in the government bond market and its implications, with Hyosub Lee, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, September 2019
  • A Study on introducing electronic trade platform for OTC derivative markets in Korea, with Hyosub Lee, Financial Services Commision, October 2017
Legal system for market order in foreign exchange transaction, with Seungho Lee, Hansoo Kim, Hyunsoo Joo and Jeungeun Lee, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, February 2017
Monetary policy in major advanced economies since the global financial crisis and lesson for the Korean economy, with Seungho Lee and Hyunsoo Joo, National Economic Advisory Council, December 2016
Establishment of AMBIF (ASEAN +3 Mutil-currency Bond Issuance Framework) and policy plan, Suk Hyun and Jin Young Yang, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, November 2015
Capital market ecosystem establishment to facilitate creative economy, with Yong Rin Park, Changmin Chun, Jongmin Kim and Joon-Seok Kim, Office of the President, December 2014
Promotion strategy for Chinese yuan-denominated bond market in Korea, with Yuhua Ahn and Sehoon Hwang, Korea Securities Depository, October 2014
Foreign exchange market advancement plan, with Seungho Lee and Hyunsoo Joo, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, July 2014
Financial cooperation in APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation): evaluation and new agenda, with Hansoo Kim, Seungho Lee and Jongmin Kim, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, July 2013
Maritime finance and its development plan, with Yongwoo Lee and Seungbok Lee, National Assembly, December 2012

Other Activities

Peer-reviewed journal articles
  • The Rise of Part-time Employment in the Great Recession: Its Causes and Macroeconomic Effects, with Jaevin Park and Hyunduk Suh,   Journal of Macroeconomics 66(C), 2020.
  • Does Air Pollution Affect Consumption Behavior? Evidence from Korean Retail Sales, with Hyunduk Suh and Jongmin Yu,  Asian Economic Journal 33(3), 2019.
  • The Time-Varying Impact of China's Economic Rebalancing on Koreas Exports to China, International Economic Journal, vol.32(1), 2018 
  • Macroeconomic Dynamics in Korea during and after Global Financial Crisis: A Bayesian DSGE Approach, with Hyunduk Suh, International Review of Economics & Finance, vol.49, May 2017 
Global liquidity and commodity prices, with Bok-Keun Yu and Jongmin Yu, Review of International Economics, vol.24(1), February 2016 
Reverse spillover: evidence during emerging market financial turmoil in 2013-2014, with Hyunduk Suh, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, vol.38, September 2015 
Currency invoicing and state-dependent pricing, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.44, June 2015 
Behind the scenes of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime, Journal of Banking & Finance, vol.37(8), August 2013