Korea Capital Market Institute

Macroeconomic Outlook and Key Issues for the Second Half of 2026 Macro-Financial Analysis Division Major economies appear to be adjusting to the impact of the war in Iran, although economic developments continue to differ somewhat across countries depending on their industrial structures and economic fundamentals. Korea recorded strong growth in the first quarter, supported by robust semiconductor exports. As domestic demand, including capital investment and private consumpt... 2026 H2 Financial Market Outlook and Asset Allocation Strategy Macro-Financial Analysis Division In H2 2026, financial markets are expected to be driven mainly by the inflation path and the consequent potential repricing of monetary-policy expectations. In particular, heightened US inflation uncertainty following the Iran war is repricing expectations for the Fed’s policy rate and, through the dollar channel, raising upside risks to long-term rates and the exchange rate. W...

Beyond the Surface: Hidden Vulnerabilities and Potential Systemic Risk in the U.S. Private Credit Market [Senior Research Fellow] Shin, Bosung The profitability of U.S. private credit borrowers appears to have deteriorated substantially. The potential for Fed policy rate hikes driven by inflation, combined with large-scale borrowing by hyperscalers, is expected to drive up interest costs for these companies. Weakening profitability and rising interest burdens will lead to borrower default, eroding the net asset value ...