KOR

Research Staff

Research Staff

Noh, Sanha Research Fellow Macro-Financial Analysis

Profile

Education
Ph.D., Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia(2019.05)
M.A., Economics, Sungkyunkwan University(2012.08)
B.A., Economics, Sungkyunkwan University(2010.08)
Professional Experience
Korea Capital Market Institute(Research Fellow, 2019.07 -)
IMF(Project Officer, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2019.04 - 2019.06)
Korea Enterprise Data(2013.04 - 2014.07)

Opinion

Debt Risk of Vulnerable Households under Covid-19: Assessment and Implications / May. 26, 2020
The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic is dragging down household income and asset prices, worsening net worth that represents households’ cash flows and financial ability. In particular, the fallout of Covid-19 will increase credit risk exposure of the vulnerable, including self-employed and temporary workers in industries vulnerable to the pandemic, and the aged with low income. To shed light on this issue, this article assessed credit risk of vulnerable households by carrying out a stress test under a scenario of a decline in disposable income, financial assets, and real assets. According to the result of the test on three household groups (the self- or temporarily-employed group; the low income group; and the over-60 group), a hypothetical economic impact will increase the number of marginalized and high-risk households more in the self- and temporarily-employed group than in the other two groups. Also found is a higher increase in debt at risk in the over-60 group than other groups. Particularly noteworthy is the higher amount of per-household debt exposed to credit risk in the self- and temporarily-employed group and the over-60 group than that in the low income group. What this implies is the necessity for additional financial support if the fallout of Covid-19 lingers for a long time. More concretely, it is needed to replenish the income of the vulnerable?aged and temporary workers with low income and unstable employment status, and the self-employed suffering from a serious fall in their income. A more fundamental approach would be effort to rein in excessive household debt while boosting household income by helping the vulnerable to find a job or start a business.
Global Economic Uncertainty and the Neutral Rate of Interest: Monetary Policy Directions / Dec. 17, 2019
The recent rise in global economic uncertainty amid the US-China trade conflict could have had a grave impact on the slowed growth in the global economy this year. Rising uncertainty imposes downward pressure on the neutral rate of interest via several paths, e.g., households’ higher precautionary savings, falling corporate investments, and investors’ growing appetite for safe assets. The neutral interest rate in developed countries and Korea plummeted when uncertainty grew in global economic policy. In particular, Korea’s neutral interest rate is falling faster than the potential growth rate in the post-crisis era, which seems to reflect the rising uncertainty in global economic policy. Despite the recent progress in the US-China conflict, uncertainty in the global economy is expected to prolong with the two countries’ disagreement over technological transfers, foreign exchange rates, subsidies to Chinese firms, etc. Also notable is uncertainty surrounding the future monetary and fiscal policy directions, Brexit, and the Hong Kong debacle. All of those factors behind global economic uncertainty could possibly impose downward pressure on Korea’s neutral interest rate. That requires monetary policymakers to pay focused attention to any signs of rising uncertainty in the global economy when making decisions on monetary policy.

Other Activities

[PUBLICATION]
"Posterior Inference on Parameters in a Non-linear DSGE Model via Gaussian-Based Filters,"
(Forthcoming, Computational Economics)
"Housing Price Synchronization by National and Regional Factors," (I.Baek), The Korean Journal of Economic Studies, 68(2), 2020, 5-35.
"The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Korean Economic Variables," (N.Kim), Kukje Kyungje Yongu, 25(1), 2019, 1-38. 

[Referee]
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Real Estate Economics, Computational Economics